CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-06-30T03:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-06-30T03:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31765/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is approximate due to the slow, faint nature of the CME in the field of view of SOHO LASCO C2, and the CME becomes more prominent in C2 around 2024-06-30T08:12Z. The source is unclear, but may be a slow eruption starting at 2024-06-30T00:07Z centered near the central meridian, around N20, best seen in SDO AIA 193. || Possible arrival signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-07-04T00:47Z to 10nT at 09:59Z. A very minor increase in solar wind speed was observed from 313 km/s at 08:23Z to 360 km/s at 15:02Z. An increase in density was observed as well, most notably increasing from 3 p/cc at 13:09Z to 12 p/cc at 16:08Z. This arrival may be associated with a glancing blow from CME: 2024-06-30T03:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-04T09:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-04T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 68.85 hour(s)
Difference: -0.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-07-01T12:32Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement